sexta-feira, 10 de outubro de 2008

Do you want understand? Talk to Mirian

Her image it conveys confidence and impartiality everyone agrees. When it talks about Mirian Leitão, - the economics journalist who writes for the newspaper O Globo and columnist / presenter for TV Globo and GloboNews - thinks protagonist in the novel's called economics. In times of stock market falling and flying U.S. dollars, Drª. Mirian gives the right word, so that we lay in economics, can understand the Folhetim which is the first cover of every newspaper in the world.

Below the post of today in which she talks about the economist who predicted the crisis:

The economist Nouriel Roubini, the crystal ball of gold in the world, which foresaw all this is that there sent to its customers a destructive analysis on the coming risks. The worst that can happen to a financial system? The systemic risk. Worse than that only a global systemic risk. It's what he thinks can happen now. The worst that can happen in the real economy? A depression. Because this word is in his analysis. Worst of Roubini is that when he predicted the recession, the financial crisis and break up of institutions such as giant Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac he was ridicularizado by economists around the world. He laughed. That was in 2006. In 2007, nobody thought much more grace, but the most common phrase I heard about a few good Brazilian economists is: to watch is right twice a day.
The worst of it is that Roubini has been right all the time. And now doubles the bet. "The world is in a severe risk of a global financial systemic melting and a severe global depression." He thinks this is necessary for an urgent global action. As the G-7 is meeting this weekend, who knows they are taken by the sense of urgency.
When he speaks overall, he is speaking primarily of "United States and developed economies." Whew! never liked both of not being on the list of the richest countries. The problem is that the United States, Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand account, he noted, 55% of world GDP and therefore will affect all other countries to enter recession at all. -So, even countries with good performance as the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India and China, are under threat of a "hard landing" (a strong and rapid drop in the level of activity).
The theory of it from the beginning that there is a banking system in the shade. Are the funds, investment banks, brokers dealers, not issuing banks for mortgages, private-equity firms, everything that was outside the radar of authorities. He said he is now seeing a dismantling that system of the shadows and that is behind the free fall of stock and stopping the banking system with rates rising much risk and business stopping. Pessimistic forecasts have an advantage: alerting the authorities for the Size of the risk and thus help to prevent the worst. That is the great advantage of Roubini, who has been the most pessimistic economists of the world and has settled with an accuracy of clock, unfortunately. In part because those who should take him seriously has not led. They think it is an exaggeration.

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